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Lecciones del 2010 para una reforma del subsidio a los combustibles en Bolivia: Análisis detallado de escenarios y gestión del contrabando

Author

Listed:
  • Javier Aliaga Lordemann

    (Investigador senior asociado de INESAD)

  • Ronaldo Terrazas

    (Investigador Junior de INESAD)

Abstract

La motivación de este trabajo es analizar la experiencia boliviana de 2010, cuando el intento por eliminar el subsidio a los carburantes fracasó y desencadenó un conflicto social y económico significativo. La situación actual, desabastecimiento de diésel y gasolina, producción nacional en declive y contrabando, agravan la vulnerabilidad sectorial. A ello se suman un déficit fiscal elevado, un diferencial cambiario y desalineamientos en los incentivos a la producción de hidrocarburos. Estos elementos combinados subrayan la necesidad de comprender en detalle lo ocurrido en 2010 para evitar repetir la improvisación y sus efectos sociales. El diagnóstico exige analizar las interacciones fiscales, cambiarias y sectoriales para proponer cualquier corrección de precios.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Aliaga Lordemann & Ronaldo Terrazas, 2025. "Lecciones del 2010 para una reforma del subsidio a los combustibles en Bolivia: Análisis detallado de escenarios y gestión del contrabando," Development Research Working Paper Series 10/2025, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:adv:wpaper:202510
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    File URL: http://www.inesad.edu.bo/pdf/wp2025/wp10_2025.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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