Pathways to student performance: What entry pathway predicts better students’ first-year GPA outcomes? A case study of a Mekong region university, Vietnam

Vietnam’s expansion of university admission pathways has raised questions about whether high school (HS) transcripts or national exam scores better predict student success. Examining five entry cohorts (11,127 students) at a Mekong regional university, this study compares how high school grades and national exam scores forecast first-year college performance across different fields of study. Results show that high school transcripts are a stronger and more reliable predictor of university academic performance than single-occasion national exam scores. Overall high school academic rank also serves as a clear indicator of achievement, with top-ranked high school students consistently outperforming their peers in college. The strength of these admission measures varies by discipline, showing the strongest predictive power in Natural Science and Technology programs and the lowest in Education. These findings demonstrate that consistent high school performance offers a clearer and more reliable forward-looking signal of university readiness than a single exam. Higher education leaders should retain transcript-based entry while standardising high school grading practices and adopting field-specific admission criteria. These findings support the Vietnam Ministry of Education and Training’s decision to retain high school transcripts in university admissions despite some public calls for their abolition.