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A regime-switching stochastic volatility model for forecasting electricity prices

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  • Peter Exterkate

    () (University of Sydney and CREATES)

  • Oskar Knapik

    () (Aarhus University and CREATES)

Abstract

In a recent review paper, Weron (2014) pinpoints several crucial challenges outstanding in the area of electricity price forecasting. This research attempts to address all of them by i) showing the importance of considering fundamental price drivers in modeling, ii) developing new techniques for probabilistic (i.e. interval or density) forecasting of electricity prices, iii) introducing an universal technique for model comparison. We propose new regime-switching stochastic volatility model with three regimes (negative jump, normal price, positive jump (spike)) where the transition matrix depends on explanatory variables. Bayesian inference is explored in order to obtain predictive densities. The main focus of the paper is on shorttime density forecasting in Nord Pool intraday market. We show that the proposed model outperforms several benchmark models at this task.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Exterkate & Oskar Knapik, 2017. "A regime-switching stochastic volatility model for forecasting electricity prices," CREATES Research Papers 2017-03, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2017-03
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    Keywords

    Electricity prices; density forecasting; Markov switching; stochastic volatility; fundamental price drivers; ordered probit model; Bayesian inference; seasonality; Nord Pool power market; electricity prices forecasting; probabilistic forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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