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Is Crime a “Root Cause” of Central American Emigration? Evidence from El Salvador

In: Not Just Neighbors The Remarkable Economic Relationships in North America

Author

Listed:
  • Kaleb Abreha
  • Trinity Johnson
  • Raymond Robertson

Abstract

We estimate the impact of President Bukele’s 2022 crime crackdown on migrant encounters at the U.S. border. El Salvador is a key source of migration through the Southern U.S. border and had high crime rates. In March 2022, a surge in violence led to a state of exception and mass arrest of suspected gang affiliates, which raised human rights concerns and significantly reduced homicides. Applying difference-in-differences and synthetic cohort methods, we find an 45–67% decline in U.S. border encounters with Salvadorans relative to others.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaleb Abreha & Trinity Johnson & Raymond Robertson, 2026. "Is Crime a “Root Cause” of Central American Emigration? Evidence from El Salvador," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Raymond Robertson (ed.), Not Just Neighbors The Remarkable Economic Relationships in North America, chapter 8, pages 291-311, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789819825295_0008
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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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