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A Bootstrap Assessment Of The Shadow Prices Of Co2 For The Industrial Sector In China’S Key Cities

In: ASIAN MITIGATION Insights, Mitigation Actions, Strategies and Policies for Asian Economies

Author

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  • MIAN YANG
  • JIANGCHUAN XU
  • MENGHAN LI
  • HONGBO DUAN

Abstract

This study constructs a modified assessment model based on the bootstrap method to estimate the CO2 shadow prices for 35 typical cities’ industrial sectors in China from 2005 to 2018. Based on data from China’s seven pilot regional carbon markets, we evaluate the current CO2 trading price distortions. The empirical results indicate that during the study period, the average CO2 shadow price for the target cities is 1915.86 yuan per tonne, decreasing to 1880.57 yuan per tonne when using the bootstrap method for bias correction. The overall trends of CO2 shadow prices in most key cities are increasing given the strengthening of environmental regulations following the 11th Five-Year Plan. In addition, compared with the CO2 shadow prices in this paper, carbon trading prices in pilot cities present significantly negative distortions, which may fail to reflect the real opportunity cost of carbon abatement. Based on the findings of this study, several policy recommendations are proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Mian Yang & Jiangchuan Xu & Menghan Li & Hongbo Duan, 2025. "A Bootstrap Assessment Of The Shadow Prices Of Co2 For The Industrial Sector In China’S Key Cities," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Hongbo Duan (ed.), ASIAN MITIGATION Insights, Mitigation Actions, Strategies and Policies for Asian Economies, chapter 9, pages 191-215, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789819812264_0009
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    Keywords

    Climate Mitigation; Climate Policy Assessment; Climate Change Economics; DSGE; CGE; LEAP; Input-output Model; LCA Analysis; GHG Emissions; Greenhouse Gases; Regional Studies; Policy Measures; Asia; Paris Agreement; Emissions; Carbon; Carbon Emissions; Carbon Neutrality; Decarbonisation; Climate Goals; Mitigation Strategy; Emissions Trading Scheme; China; Green Energy; Global Warming; Climate Change; Carbon Footprint;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects

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