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VERs AND EXPECTATIONS: EXTENSIONS AND EVIDENCE**Part of this work was conducted under the Centre for Economic Policy Research's programme ‘Empirical: Models of Strategic Trade Policy’, funded by the Ford Foundation (No. 86o-0312A). The paper has benefited from discussions in seminars at City University, the University of Bristol, the University of Bordeaux and the Catholic University, Leuven. I also thank Paul Brenton, Iviichacl Leidy and two referees for comments

In: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis

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  • L. Alan Winters

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of an expected future voluntary export restraint on the level of firms' current exports to a market. The traditional result that current exports increase is shown to depend on the degree of collusion in the exporting industry and the anticipated restrictiveness of the VER. The former relationship is tested by reference to the effect ofEC import surveillance on its imports. Surveillance is argued to indicate an increased probability of a V'ER in the future, and it is found that while competitive industries respond to it by increasing exports to the EC, less competitive ones curtail exports. This constitutes one of the few empirical tests of the strategic part of strategic trade policy.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Alan Winters, 2015. "VERs AND EXPECTATIONS: EXTENSIONS AND EVIDENCE**Part of this work was conducted under the Centre for Economic Policy Research's programme ‘Empirical: Models of Strategic Trade Policy’, funded by the F," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 6, pages 113-123, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789814571272_0006
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