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Database Models And Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager

In: Perspectives On Promotion And Database Marketing The Collected Works of Robert C Blattberg

Author

Listed:
  • ROBERT C. BLATTBERG

    (University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business, 1101 E. 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA)

  • STEPHEN J. HOCH

    (University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business, 1101 E. 58th Street, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA)

Abstract

We focus on ways of combining simple database models with managerial intuition. We present a model and method for isolating managerial intuition. For five different business forecasting situations, our results indicate that a combination of model and manager always outperforms either of these decision inputs in isolation, an average R2 increase of 0.09 (16%) above the best single decision input in cross-validated model analyses. We assess the validity of an equal weighting heuristic, 50% model + 50% manager, and then discuss why our results might differ from previous research on expert judgment.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 2010. "Database Models And Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Greg M Allenby (ed.), Perspectives On Promotion And Database Marketing The Collected Works of Robert C Blattberg, chapter 14, pages 215-227, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789814287067_0014
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantitative Marketing; Tracker Model; Customer Level Data; Marketing-Mix Modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing

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