Treasury Operations In A Multi-National Oil Company: Dialogue On The Methodology Of Using Natural Experiments In Complex Evolving Systems

The authors of this double-tongue double-talk dialogue explore how complexity thinking can be used to resolve anomalies where 'old economy' meets 'new economy'. As a prominent 'old economy' company, Shell is revisiting its approach to value creation in the changed economic environment. To illustrate the tensions and possible ways towards resolution, the pilot study project with Shell Treasury Operations is used. The LSE Complexity Group worked with Shell Treasury Operations, using part of a new methodology based on the principles of complexity, to investigate a recent reorganisation. This was a pilot project, leading to a new collaborative action research project, ICoSS (Integration of Complex Social Systems), funded by the EPSRC (Engineering and Physical Science Research Council), in which also Brightstar (British Telecom's incubator of new companies) BT, Norwich Union and Rolls-Royce Marine are also involved. The paper is presented in the form of a largely improvised discussion on the platform. It incorporates elements of another common tension – namely between a complexity research group offering a method, and an industry partner, keen for immediately applicable solutions.