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Progress and Structure of Intraregional Trade in CASA: Addressing and Understanding the Trade Conundrum

In: Trade and Development in Central and South Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Nassir Ul Haq Wani

    (Policy and Impact, Kardan University, Department of Research and Development
    Kashmir Research Information System)

Abstract

Globally, the least integrated regions are Central Asia and South Asia. While each member nation has effectively raised its portion of the global market, intraregional trade growth is trailing behind. To understand the declining trade paradox and evaluate regional trade patterns, this chapter breaks down regional trade data from 2005 to 2021 by employing the Frankel index for trade estimations and regional trade profiling. The projected Frankel index does not indicate trade regionalism in CASA, as neither intraregional imports nor exports do. The regional trade profile of CASA countries shows that trade within the region is becoming less important, while the percentage of South Asia’s total trade (not including Pakistan) with other CASA nations is dominant. Except for Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, the Central Asian nations’ percentage of their overall exports to their counterparts in 2022 grew more than what was anticipated based on the export preference of 2005. This result suggests that the CASA areas are unable to satisfy the region’s import requirements, except for India. India’s ability to meet the import demand of the other CASA countries will be the primary driver of intraregional trade in both regions, as these economies have more or less similar economic structures. According to the results, there won’t be any economic growth in intraregional trade until the CASA economies are strong enough to meet trade needs, boost trade between and within industries, help the regional value chain grow, and commence trade in new areas like services.

Suggested Citation

  • Nassir Ul Haq Wani, 2025. "Progress and Structure of Intraregional Trade in CASA: Addressing and Understanding the Trade Conundrum," Springer Books, in: Trade and Development in Central and South Asia, chapter 0, pages 47-69, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sprchp:978-981-95-2728-1_3
    DOI: 10.1007/978-981-95-2728-1_3
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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