Facing Uncertainty: Thinking in Scenarios

At the latest since the global COVID-19 crisis, it has become clear that conventional, mostly linear planning processes are a thing of the past. A shift in thinking is required in the management ranks of international brands in order to address the challenges of a globally networked and rapidly changing economic environment and to secure their own competitiveness in the long term. As a result, scenario planning is once again moving into the spotlight of strategic brand management, as it enables management to examine a multitude of potential future scenarios and, based on these, to develop flexible strategies. Furthermore, scenario planning also strengthens a company’s capacity for innovation by enabling the development and implementation of innovative solutions based on different future scenarios (such as Black Swans, Grey Rhinos, Green Swans, Silver Linings). Scenario planning itself should be conceived as an ongoing learning process in which an organization learns from experience, thereby continuously improving the scenario planning process itself.