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Bulgaria’s Macroeconomic Foundations in a Turbulent Global Context

Author

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  • Paskal Zhelev

    (University of National and World Economy)

Abstract

This chapter explores Bulgaria’s macroeconomic framework within the context of global economic volatility, focusing on the nation’s resilience and challenges in navigating external disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Central to the analysis is Bulgaria’s Currency Board Arrangement (CBA), adopted in 1997, which has provided economic stability but limited monetary policy flexibility. The chapter examines the implications of this framework as Bulgaria progresses toward Eurozone membership, highlighting the benefits and risks of transitioning from the CBA to full European Monetary Union integration. Key macroeconomic indicators—GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and public debt—are analyzed over the past decade to illustrate the country’s economic performance. The interplay between monetary and fiscal policies is scrutinized, particularly in addressing external shocks and preparing for Eurozone accession. Structural challenges, including low labor productivity, demographic decline, insufficient investment, and institutional weaknesses, are identified as critical barriers to sustainable growth. The chapter argues that while Bulgaria has maintained macroeconomic stability, long-term development requires strategic reforms to enhance productivity, strengthen institutions, and ensure resilience against global economic uncertainties. This analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of Bulgaria’s macroeconomic foundations in an increasingly turbulent global environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Paskal Zhelev, 2025. "Bulgaria’s Macroeconomic Foundations in a Turbulent Global Context," Societies and Political Orders in Transition,, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:socchp:978-3-031-87923-4_3
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-87923-4_3
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