Romania’s Transition to a Circular Economy: An Empirical Analysis

In the context of global sustainability imperatives, the transition to a circular economy represents both an ecological necessity and a strategic opportunity for Romania. This study presents a quantitative analysis of the circular material use rate during 2012–2022, employing linear regression methods based on EUROSTAT data processed using JASP software. The analyzed indicators include the recycling rate of municipal waste, the share of energy from renewable sources, greenhouse gas emissions, domestic material consumption, municipal waste generation, and environmental tax contributions. The results reveal a strong positive correlation between the recycling rate of municipal waste and circular material use, indicating a direct association between increased recycling efforts and enhanced circularity. At the same time, domestic material consumption is negatively and significantly correlated with circular material use, highlighting the restrictive impact of intensive consumption on the transition to a circular model. Indicators related to renewable energy sources and environmental tax contributions did not demonstrate a significant influence, suggesting the need for a strategic reassessment of policies in energy transition and environmental taxation. The developed regression models explain a high percentage of the variation in the circular material use rate, with domestic material consumption emerging as the primary predictor. Descriptive analyses, the correlation matrix, and ANOVA tests support the robustness of the applied models. These findings provide an analytical perspective on the interaction between economic and environmental factors shaping circular economy adoption in Romania and offer an empirical basis for sustainable development strategies aligned with European Union objectives and the 2030 Agenda.