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Demographic Challenges and Economic Implications for Romania’s Counties by 2040: A Regional Analysis Using ESDA and Multivariate Spatial Clustering

In: Transformational Drivers of National Economies: A New Analytical Framework Addressing Transitional Growth Model

Author

Listed:
  • Cristina Lincaru

    (National Institute for Scientific Research on Labor and Social Protection (INCSMPS))

  • Vasilica Ciucă

    (National Institute for Scientific Research on Labor and Social Protection (INCSMPS))

  • Mihaela-Nona Chilian

    (Romanian Academy, Institute for Economic Forecasting)

  • Marioara Iordan

    (Romanian Academy, Institute for Economic Forecasting)

Abstract

This paper explores the demographic challenges facing Romania’s counties by 2040, focussing on the implications of population decline and ageing on regional labour markets and economic performance. Using EUROSTAT projections and the Baseline scenario, the study employs Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and multivariate spatial clustering methods in GIS to analyse demographic trends and dependency rates at the NUTS-3 level. The findings reveal significant regional disparities, with rural and economically underdeveloped counties at high risk of workforce shortages and economic stagnation due to out-migration and ageing populations. Counties like Teleorman and Vâlcea are projected to experience the highest demographic dependency ratios, while urban centres such as Cluj and Timiș may maintain more balanced labour markets. The study provides a detailed spatial understanding of the demographic transition and its economic impact, offering policy recommendations that include increasing labour market participation, stimulating economic diversification, and supporting ageing populations. Tailored regional strategies are essential to mitigate these challenges and ensure economic stability and resilience as Romania adapts to its evolving demographic landscape.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Lincaru & Vasilica Ciucă & Mihaela-Nona Chilian & Marioara Iordan, 2026. "Demographic Challenges and Economic Implications for Romania’s Counties by 2040: A Regional Analysis Using ESDA and Multivariate Spatial Clustering," Springer Proceedings in Business and Economics, in: Luminita Chivu & Valeriu Ioan-Franc & George Georgescu & Ignacio De Los Ríos Carmenado & Jean-Vasile (ed.), Transformational Drivers of National Economies: A New Analytical Framework Addressing Transitional Growth Model, chapter 5, pages 95-114, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:prbchp:978-3-032-18962-2_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-032-18962-2_5
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