Stress Testing of the Pension System in Egypt

This study employs scenario-based simulation analysis to assess the long-term fiscal sustainability of Egypt’s pension system as structured under Law 148/2019. Utilizing comprehensive data from the 2023 Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) and demographic projections from the World Bank and United Nations, it stress-tests long-term fiscal outcomes under current contribution, demographic trend, and macroeconomic assumptions. The analysis pays special attention to informal workers, who represent the majority of Egypt’s labor force. Findings reveal significant fiscal challenges: without further reforms, male pension deficits could reach 7 trillion EGP by 2079, and total pension spending may consume up to 30% of total government expenditure. Despite both legal eligibility and government support, only 10% of informal workers contribute to the formal pension system—reflecting persistent barriers such as high contribution costs, administrative burdens, and affordability constraints. Female pensions, though more stable, also contribute to long-term burden due to longer life expectancy and lower lifetime contributions. The study recommends urgent systemic reforms that go beyond parametric adjustments. These include progressive contribution schemes, simplified digital enrollment, and behavioral interventions such nudges in the form of automatic enrollment to increase participation. Such measures are essential to strengthening social protection while ensuring fiscal sustainability. Future research should explore the behavioral dimensions of participation and draw on international comparisons to inform locally tailored reforms.