Influence of the Mutual Trade of the CIS Countries on Their Economic Convergence: Methodical Approach and Empirical Analysis

The relevance of the study is determined by the commitment of integration associations of countries to the economic convergence of their members. The goal is to substantiate the methodical provision assessing the influence of mutual trade of such countries on their convergence and to test it through the example of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) as a part of the Big Eurasian partnership. The hypothesis is that this influence is stronger for production and accumulation and weaker for human development. The research methods included selecting the relevant indicators from existing indicators of mutual trade and macroeconomic development. The authors selected 8 indicators on trade, including on certain commodity groups, and 14 indicators on macroeconomic development – production volume, investments, financial sustainability, and social aspects. An equation was proposed to calculate the average degree of convergence of participants in the integration association on each macroeconomic indicator. Between indicators of trade and convergence, for each pair of indicators, the correlation coefficient was calculated using the method of least squares. As a result, an assessing methodical provision was formed. Its testing on the CIS showed that the correlation was high in the case of governmental debt, industrial value added, and international reserves, and low in the cases of inflation, employment, investments, and science expenses. The results can be used to analyze the effectiveness of strategies for developing intercountry integration.