Gravity Models in Tourism: The “Crises” Factor

In the last fifteen years, the Mediterranean has faced major crises, starting with the international financial crisis (2007), the Arab spring (2010), and the refugee crisis (2015), while today it is still facing the crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic, but also the dramatic devaluation of the Turkish lira. The COVID-19 pandemic, in fact, which is still ongoing, has shown that the vulnerability of tourism to crises and the peculiar challenges of recovery, require the creation of the appropriate tools, which can help the decision-making process when it comes to tourism and its development, especially at destination level. Given the geographic nature of tourism, the forces (pull) between origin-destination countries, and the factors that influence them, is an important starting point for tourism recovery, with involved parties to be able to anticipate changes in the direction and intensity of tourist flows. Therefore, this paper is a research note that proposes a gravity model development for predicting spatial interactions and travel flows in times of crises that, in addition to its contribution to the literature of the tourism academia (with a new sophisticated) model of Newtonian gravity applied to tourism, it may significantly contribute with practical implications for tourism organizations and businesses as it is expected to predict changes in travel flows, thus supporting decision-making process regarding crisis management and tourism recovery, and producing multiple economic, social and environmental benefits for international popular Mediterranean destinations.