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Robust Decision Making for a Climate-Resilient Development of the Agricultural Sector in Nigeria

In: Climate Smart Agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Valentina Mereu

    (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
    University of Sassari)

  • Monia Santini

    (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

  • Raffaello Cervigni

    (Environment and Natural Resources Global Practice, Africa Region, The World Bank)

  • Benedicte Augeard

    (The French National Agency for Water and Aquatic Environments)

  • Francesco Bosello

    (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

  • E. Scoccimarro

    (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

  • Donatella Spano

    (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

  • Riccardo Valentini

    (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

Abstract

Adaptation options that work reasonably well across an entire range of potential outcomes are shown to be preferable in a context of deep uncertainty. This is because robust practices that are expected to perform satisfactorily across the full range of possible future conditions, are preferable to those that are the best ones, but just in one specific scenario. Thus, using a Robust Decision Making Approach in Nigerian agriculture may increase resilience to climate change. To illustrate, the expansion of irrigation might be considered as a complementary strategy to conservation techniques and a shift in sowing/planting dates to enhance resilience of agriculture. However, given large capital expenditures, irrigation must consider climate trends and variability. Using historical climate records is insufficient to size capacity and can result in “regrets” when the investment is undersized/oversized, if the climate turns out to be drier/wetter than expected. Rather utilizing multiple climate outcomes to make decisions will decrease “regrets.” This chapter summarizes the main results from a study titled “Toward climate-resilient development in Nigeria” funded by the Word Bank (See Cervigni et al. 2013).

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Mereu & Monia Santini & Raffaello Cervigni & Benedicte Augeard & Francesco Bosello & E. Scoccimarro & Donatella Spano & Riccardo Valentini, 2018. "Robust Decision Making for a Climate-Resilient Development of the Agricultural Sector in Nigeria," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: Leslie Lipper & Nancy McCarthy & David Zilberman & Solomon Asfaw & Giacomo Branca (ed.), Climate Smart Agriculture, pages 277-306, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nrmchp:978-3-319-61194-5_13
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-61194-5_13
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    Cited by:

    1. Edamisan Stephen Ikuemonisan & Igbekele Amos Ajibefun, 2021. "Economic Implications of Smallholders’ Collaborative Groupings on Household Income and Adaptability to Climate Change in Nigeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Nigel Scott & Melinda Barnard-Tallier & Simon Batchelor, 2021. "Losing the Energy to Cook: An Exploration of Modern Food Systems and Energy Consumption in Domestic Kitchens," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-17, July.

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