IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/spr/eurchp/978-3-319-39919-5_22.html
   My bibliography  Save this book chapter

Oil Spot Prices’ Next Day Volatility: Comparison of European and American Short-Run Forecasts

In: Financial Environment and Business Development

Author

Listed:
  • Tomáš Heryán

    (School of Business Administration in Karviná, Silesian University)

Abstract

The aim of the current paper is to estimate spot prices’ next-day volatility of the two largest kinds of crude oil, European Brent oil and American WTI oil, and examine differences due to selected global incidents. Daily data for oil spot prices are from May 1987 till January 2015. The contribution of the study is in a comparison of oil spot prices’ development and impacts of the Euro sovereign debt crises, recent global financial crises, and also the historical affairs as the military conflict in the Persian Gulf in 1990, or particular incidents after the start of the new millennium. The estimation method for short-run forecasting is the volatility model GARCH (1,1). While it has been proven that there was higher volatility during the global financial crisis within American WTI oil prices, higher errors were examined within European Brent oil prices. There was no higher volatility due to the euro crisis in the last 4 years. Nonetheless, both investigated oil prices were affected by highest volatility during military conflict in 1990 in our estimated period. It was clearly concluded that military conflicts can affect oil prices in a much higher way than recent financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomáš Heryán, 2017. "Oil Spot Prices’ Next Day Volatility: Comparison of European and American Short-Run Forecasts," Eurasian Studies in Business and Economics, in: Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Hakan Danis & Ender Demir & Ugur Can (ed.), Financial Environment and Business Development, pages 285-296, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurchp:978-3-319-39919-5_22
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-39919-5_22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof Drachal, 2018. "Determining Time-Varying Drivers of Spot Oil Price in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, May.
    2. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2018. "Comparison between Bayesian and information-theoretic model averaging: Fossil fuels prices example," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 208-251.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurchp:978-3-319-39919-5_22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.