Risk Contagion Across Top Global Rare Earth Elements Firms

This chapter investigates systemic risk contagion, hedging strategies, and portfolio optimization among seven major firms in the rare earth market: China Northern Rare Earth, Lynas Rare Earths Ltd, Iluka Resources Ltd, Arafura Rare Earths Ltd, Niocorp Developments Ltd, Uncore Rare Metals Inc, and Mkango Resources Ltd. Lynas Rare Earths Ltd is the largest non-Chinese producer of rare earths which is headquartered in Australia and operates a major processing plant in Malaysia which is located in the ASEAN region. The chapter analyzes the interconnectedness among these firms, identifying key risk transmitters and receivers using data from August 15, 2014 to August 15, 2024 along with the R2 connectedness measures and a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model. The findings reveal that firms like Lynas Rare Earths Ltd with operations in the ASEAN region act as major net transmitters of risk, while firms like Iluka Resources Ltd and Uncore Rare Metals Inc are net receivers, making them more vulnerable to systemic shocks. The chapter also explores the effectiveness of bilateral hedging strategies, which show limited utility in managing risk. In contrast, the Minimum Variance Portfolio (MVP), Minimum Correlation Portfolio (MCP), and Minimum Connectedness Portfolio (MCoP) provide more robust frameworks for risk mitigation. The results suggest that firms like Iluka Resources Ltd and China Northern Rare Earth are essential for minimizing portfolio variance, while Mkango Resources Ltd plays a critical role in reducing correlation and systemic risk. These chapter insights offer valuable guidance for investors seeking to optimize risk-return balance and for policymakers in the ASEAN region aiming to enhance the resilience of the rare earth market in the region. The study underscores the importance of strategic portfolio diversification and highlights the need for stronger risk management practices in this critical industry.