Future Projections and Scenarios for a Sustainable Rare-Earth Elements Supply Chain in the ASEAN Region

The demand for rare earth elements is expected to surge in the coming decades, driven by the growth of electric vehicles and wind power technologies, both critical for achieving global climate targets. This chapter focuses on developing future projections and scenarios for a sustainable rare earth supply chain in the ASEAN region, which is poised to play a crucial role in the rare earth elements production. The chapter analyses four key rare earth elements—neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium—vital for permanent magnets used in electric vehicles and wind turbines. Current challenges in the region include limited production capacity, geopolitical instability, and environmental concerns, particularly in countries like Myanmar and Vietnam. The chapter explores supply-side strategies, such as increasing mining and refining capacities, and demand-side interventions, including material substitution and recycling. It also highlights the importance of adopting recycling and circular economy principles and fostering regional cooperation to secure a sustainable and resilient rare earth elements supply chain. By 2050, recycling could meet a significant portion of the region’s rare earth elements demand, but only if technological and policy advancements are achieved. The chapter concludes that a multifaceted approach, combining increased primary production, advanced recycling, sustainable consumption practices, and enhanced regional and global cooperation, is essential for ASEAN to meet its clean energy goals and contribute to global climate change mitigation.