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Geopolitical Risk and International Economic Law: An Empirical Framework for Designing Resilient Trade and Investment Rules

In: Geopolitical Risks and Geoeconomics in International Economic Law

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  • Yoshimichi Ishikawa

    (University of Shizuoka, School of International Relations)

Abstract

This article examines how rising geopolitical risk is reshaping international economic law (IEL) and proposes an empirical framework for institutional design. Drawing on recent empirical studies, it demonstrates that spikes in geopolitical risk depress international trade, particularly in services, energy, and agriculture, and reduce foreign direct investment, especially in states with weak governance and regulatory quality. Building on these findings, it argues that IEL requires more predictable rules, more tailored sectoral disciplines, and more transparent investment governance to manage the systemic pressures created by heightened geopolitical risk. In doing so, the article contributes to the “empirical turn” in IEL by linking quantitative measurement of geopolitical risk with normative debates on the future architecture of trade and investment rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshimichi Ishikawa, 2026. "Geopolitical Risk and International Economic Law: An Empirical Framework for Designing Resilient Trade and Investment Rules," Economics, Law, and Institutions in Asia Pacific, in: Junji Nakagawa & Taro Hamada & Yoshimichi Ishikawa (ed.), Geopolitical Risks and Geoeconomics in International Economic Law, chapter 5, pages 73-94, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eclchp:978-981-95-6996-0_5
    DOI: 10.1007/978-981-95-6996-0_5
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