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Informational Efficiency and Endogenous Rational Bubbles

In: Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • George A. Waters

    (Illinois State University)

Abstract

In a model where rational bubbles form and collapse endogenously, properly specified tests of return predictability have little power to reject deviations from the efficient markets model. A weighted replicator dynamic describes how agents switch between a forecast based on fundamentals, a rational bubble forecast, and a weighted average of the two. A significant portion of the population may adopt the rational bubble forecast, which is inconsistent with the efficient markets model but satisfies informational efficiency. Tests on simulated data show excess variance in the price and unpredictable returns.

Suggested Citation

  • George A. Waters, 2018. "Informational Efficiency and Endogenous Rational Bubbles," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 149-172, Springer.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:dymchp:978-3-319-98714-9_7
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-98714-9_7
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen, Quynh Nhu & Waters, George A., 2022. "Detecting periodically collapsing bubbles in the S&P 500," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 83-91.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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