Ageing and Migration: Some Reflexions on the Effects of the Economic and Financial Crisis on Demographic Trends in Portuguese Regions

The ageing of the Portuguese population is a long-term trend that began years ago but has become more evident recently. The results from the 2011 Census show a country with an old age dependency ratio of 28.9, well above the EU27 average, an index of renewal of the active population close to 94.34, and a declining proportion of young people. The 2% population growth between 2001 and 2011 was possible due to the increase of foreign citizens in Portugal. According to Statistics Portugal, 82.4% of the foreign citizens are aged between 15 and 64 and only 5% are 65 or older. In 2010, 12.6% of all births were from foreign parents. Considering the relative youth of the migrant population, the higher birth rates of some communities and the regional disparities in its settlement patterns, the presence of foreign groups may attenuate the population loss and ageing in some regions of Portugal. However, the economic and financial crisis the country is going through has had a deep effect in the recent evolution of international migration to Portugal: the rising unemployment led to a reduction of labour migration, expansion of return flows to the origin countries, re-emigration to other countries and growing emigration of Portuguese workers. In order to anticipate the demographic trends at the regional level, forecasting models are developed, taking into account different scenarios of natural population change and migration flows. Finally, a discussion is made on the implications of these results for migration and regional development policies.