Micro-econometric and Micro-Macro Linked Models: Modeling Agricultural Growth and Nutrition Linkages: Lessons from Tanzania and Malawi

While growth is necessary for poverty reduction, the extent to which poverty declines depends on its level and structure as well as characteristics of the poor. Agricultural growth in particular has been shown to be effective at reducing poverty in developing countries. For this reason there is also a perception that agricultural growth improves food and nutrition security outcomes, whether through home-production-for-own-consumption or household income channels. However, evidence in this regard is more mixed. Drawing on economywide modeling analyses, this paper explores methods for analyzing the complex linkages between (agricultural) growth, poverty, and food and nutrition security outcomes in developing country contexts. We find that the structure of growth and linkages between poor or malnourished households and the economy indeed strongly influence welfare outcomes. However, modeling analyses still fall short in accurately characterizing the “utilization” dimension of food security; for example, improvements in health or education associated with growth may improve the responsiveness of nutrition to higher agricultural productivity or household incomes. Some areas for model development and further research are identified.