The Second Automotive Revolution Is Under Way: Scenarios in Confrontation

Since the publication of the previous GERPISA book, The Second Automotive Revolution (Freyssenet, 2009b), many signs seem to confirm that the transition to cleaner vehicles is actually beginning (Jullien 2010). The use of alternative fuels, natural gas or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is growing steadily, and there has been a significant increase in the numbers of hybrid vehicles, battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid cars being produced. Projects planning to launch more of these types of cars by 2015 are still more numerous (see Table 17.1). Car manufacturers are increasing the testing of plug-in and electric vehicles under real conditions. Plans for installing the infrastructure for battery charging or exchange are starting to be realized. Many governments and local authorities have confirmed, and sometimes extended, despite the current financial crisis, their support programme for new powertrains. Research into batteries with an autonomy similar to that of the internal combustion engine (ICE) is well established, and research on fuel cells continues. Associations, foundations, consortia, the media and ‘initiatives’ for the promotion of electric vehicles are proliferating. Finally, one can observe the evolution of the position and of the strategy of some governments and some carmakers, a sign that the battle for the various transition scenarios is well and truly under way.