Livestock Consumption: Diverse and Changing Preferences

China’s livestock sector has expanded rapidly since the rural reforms beginning in late 1978. During the period 1985–96, total output of all meats1 grew at 10.6 per cent per annum according to official production statistics (SSB 1997). As a result of this extraordinary growth, China’s per capita consumption (disappearance) of red meats (beef, mutton and pork) has approached levels in Japan and South Korea, although still significantly lower than that in Taiwan. Substantial increases in production and consumption in the next decade are forecast by both Chinese policy analysts and the Chinese government. As part of its long-term plan, the government envisages a basic balance of production and consumption in this sector up to 2010 (Chen, Zhu and Li 1996). Many overseas researchers (for example, Crook and Colby 1996; Crompton and Phillips 1993), however, forecast that if trade restrictions do not increase, China will import either more meat or feed grain in the long run since demand for meat products will outstrip domestic supply with rapid income and population growth.