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Accelerating Vaccine Innovation for Emerging Infectious Diseases via Parallel Discovery

In: Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, volume 2

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph Barberio
  • Jacob Becraft
  • Zied Ben Chaouch
  • Dimitris Bertsimas
  • Tasuku Kitada
  • Michael L. Li
  • Andrew W. Lo
  • Kevin Shi
  • Qingyang Xu

Abstract

We analyze the financial performance of a hypothetical portfolio of 120 mRNA vaccine candidates in the preclinical stage targeting 11 emerging infectious diseases. We calibrate the simulation parameters with input from domain experts in mRNA technology and an extensive literature review. We find that the portfolio generates an average annualized return on investment of –6.0% per annum and a net present value of –$9.5 billion, despite the scientific advantages of mRNA technology and the financial benefits of diversification. Clinical trial costs account for 94% of the total investment, with manufacturing costs accounting for only 6%. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the most important factor determining financial performance is the price per dose, while the increased probability of success due to mRNA technology, adjusting the size of the portfolio, and the possibility of conducting human challenge trials do not significantly improve financial performance. These results underscore that if the goal is to create a sustainable business model and robust global vaccine ecosystem, continued collaboration between government agencies and the private sector is likely to be necessary.
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Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Barberio & Jacob Becraft & Zied Ben Chaouch & Dimitris Bertsimas & Tasuku Kitada & Michael L. Li & Andrew W. Lo & Kevin Shi & Qingyang Xu, 2022. "Accelerating Vaccine Innovation for Emerging Infectious Diseases via Parallel Discovery," NBER Chapters, in: Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, volume 2, pages 9-39, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14680
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dimitrios Gouglas & Kevin Marsh, 2021. "Prioritizing investments in rapid response vaccine technologies for emerging infections: A portfolio decision analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(2), pages 1-21, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gaurab Aryal & Federico Ciliberto & Leland E. Farmer & Ekaterina Khmelnitskaya, 2022. "Valuing Pharmaceutical Drug Innovations," Papers 2212.07384, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare

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