Taylor Rule Exchange Rate Forecasting during the Financial Crisis
In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012
This paper evaluates out-of-sample exchange rate predictability of Taylor rule models, where the central bank sets the interest rate in response to inflation and either the output or the unemployment gap, for the euro/dollar exchange rate with real-time data before, during, and after the financial crisis of 2008-2009. While all Taylor rule specifications outperform the random walk with forecasts ending between 2007:Q1 and 2008:Q2, only the specification with both estimated coefficients and the unemployment gap consistently outperforms the random walk from 2007:Q1 through 2012:Q1. Several Taylor rule models that are augmented with credit spreads or financial condition indexes outperform the original Taylor rule models. The performance of the Taylor rule models is superior to the interest rate differentials, monetary, and purchasing power parity models.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|This chapter was published in: ||This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number
12774.||Handle:|| RePEc:nbr:nberch:12774||Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.orgEmail:
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12774. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.