Are Market Forecasts Rational?
In: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconomics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models
This paper conducts tests of the rationality of both inflation and short-term interest rate forecasts in the bond market. These tests are developed with the theory of efficient markets and make use of security price data to infer information on market expectations.
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- Barro, Robert J, 1977.
"Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
- Robert J. Barro, 1976. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," Working Papers 234, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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