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Are Market Forecasts Rational?

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  • Mishkin, Frederic S

Abstract

This paper conducts tests of the rationality of both inflation and short-term interest rate forecasts in the bond market. These tests are developed with the theory of efficient markets and make use of security price data to infer information on market expectations.
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Suggested Citation

  • Mishkin, Frederic S, 1981. "Are Market Forecasts Rational?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 295-306, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:71:y:1981:i:3:p:295-306
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
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