Geopolitical changes and the new agricultural trade environment

In the previous edition of this book series, published in 2024 as a contribution to the 13th Ministerial Conference, one of our main themes was the profound geopolitical changes that were taking place in the world and its implications for the functioning of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and trade in general. Our analysis pointed to a progressive weakening of multilateral institutions and of the enforcement of multilateral trade rules. This was particularly noticeable among the large economies with considerable bargaining power. We warned that this trend risked a return to power-based bilateralism, at the expense of global cooperation. Two years later, as we approach the 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14) in Yaoundé, the geopolitical changes we were concerned about—and the threats to the rules-based multilateral trade system—have gained a scale and intensity that exceed even the most pessimistic forecasts. This crisis is fueled by a growing conviction in many advanced economies, led by the United States of America (US), that the current trade framework is outdated. The US perspective has shifted from supporting the system to actively disrupting it, citing chronic non-compliance, particularly by China, and the perceived failure of the WTO to address state-led economic models. As a result, the global landscape has shifted beyond potential risks, with increasing use of reciprocal tariffs and a gradual fragmentation of trade relationships.