What do we know about the future of urbanization in relation to food systems?

The world is urbanizing rapidly. The global urban population increased from 2.87 billion in 2000 to 4.38 billion in 2020, a 53 percent rise, and is projected to reach 6.57 billion by 2050, representing 68 percent of the world’s population (World Bank 2024a). Urbanization is often associated with structural economic transformation, marked by a growing share of nonagriculture sectors (that is, industry and services) in gross domestic product (GDP) and employment, as well as increased productivity and incomes — ideally driven by high-productivity industries. Rapid urbanization typically leads to significant growth in market volumes (Reardon and Timmer 2014; Minten et al. 2020). However, this growth can result in declining diet quality due to reduced availability of fruits and vegetables. Additionally, improving sanitation and food safety becomes a major challenge. Excessively rapid urbanization can lead to the development of urban slums and increased poverty, and it often coincides with underinvestment in agriculture and the rural economy, exacerbating rural poverty. More research is needed, using detailed spatial data to link biophysical and socioeconomic outcomes, to better understand the ongoing urbanization-driven transformation of food systems.