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A Debt Projection Model

In: Tax Policy and Uncertainty

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Abstract

This chapter produces a long-term debt model containing feedback effect, which may enhance or modify the intended or initial consequences of those responses. For example, tax and expenditure policy changes might be implemented to deal with a fiscal deficit, while the interest rate may vary endogenously as a result of risk-premium adjustments to debt levels. The feedback effects are modelled using reduced-form specifications rather than a structural approach with explicit optimising behaviour. The model nevertheless contains a sufficient amount of detail to enable a range of policy responses to be examined. The present chapter considers policy variations needed to achieve a specified fiscal balance at the end of the projection period. To make the model as transparent as possible, a high level of aggregation is used. Demographic variations in both population size and its age composition influence government expenditure and revenue. While detailed demographic projections are used, distinctions are drawn only between those of working age, retirement age and those below working age.

Suggested Citation

  • ., 2020. "A Debt Projection Model," Chapters, in: Tax Policy and Uncertainty, chapter 3, pages 29-72, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:elg:eechap:20207_3
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    Cited by:

    1. Gupta, Ankit & Davis, Matthew & Kumar, Amit, 2021. "An integrated assessment framework for the decarbonization of the electricity generation sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    2. Dougier, Nathanael & Garambois, Pierre & Gomand, Julien & Roucoules, Lionel, 2021. "Multi-objective non-weighted optimization to explore new efficient design of electrical microgrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    3. Liu, Jia & Ma, Tao & Wu, Huijun & Yang, Hongxing, 2023. "Study on optimum energy fuel mix for urban cities integrated with pumped hydro storage and green vehicles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    4. Bichaye Tesfaye & Monica Lengoiboni & Jaap Zevenbergen & Belay Simane, 2023. "Rethinking the Impact of Land Certification on Tenure Security, Land Disputes, Land Management, and Agricultural Production: Insights from South Wello, Ethiopia," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-25, September.

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