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Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO

In: CNB Global Economic Outlook - June 2022

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  • Filip Novotny
  • Petr Polak

Abstract

Every month, Global Economic Outlook (GEO) provides an overview of the latest economic forecasts issued by international institutions, selected central banks and Consensus Economics. With the benefit of hindsight, it can be said that the monitored institutions tended to be pessimistic with their economic outlooks for 2021, probably due to the initial shock of the Covid pandemic. Their GDP forecasts thus expected lower growth on average. Similarly, lower consumer price inflation was expected in most cases compared to the subsequent outcome. In line with this, the outlooks for short-term interest rates at the one-year horizon were slightly overestimated for both the euro area and the USA. As regards the exchange rates of the monitored currencies against the dollar, forecasters expected a weaker dollar last year compared to what transpired. The crude oil price was underestimated in the forecasts over the entire assessment period.

Suggested Citation

  • Filip Novotny & Petr Polak, 2022. "Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - June 2022, pages 16-20, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:geo2022/6
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    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/monetary-policy/.galleries/geo/geo_2022/gev_2022_06_en.pdf
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