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Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO

In: CNB Global Economic Outlook - June 2020

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  • Filip Novotny

Abstract

Every month, Global Economic Outlook (GEO) provides an overview of the latest economic forecasts issued by international institutions, selected central banks and Consensus Economics. With the benefit of hindsight, it can be said that the monitored institutions tended to be optimistic with their economic outlooks for 2019. Their forecasts for GDP growth expected higher levels on average. Similarly, expected consumer price inflation was higher in most cases than the subsequent outcomes. Likewise, the short-term interest rate outlooks for the euro area and the USA at the one-year horizon were also overestimated. As regards the exchange rates of the monitored currencies against the dollar, forecasters expected a weaker dollar compared to what transpired. The price of crude oil was also slightly overestimated in the forecasts on average over the entire assessment period.

Suggested Citation

  • Filip Novotny, 2020. "Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - June 2020, pages 12-20, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:geo2020/6
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