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¿Qué determina los precios del mercado inmobiliario en Venezuela? Una historia sobre renta petrolera y fragilidad financiera?

In: Precios de activos internos, fundamentos globales y estabilidad financiera

Author

Listed:
  • Óscar Carvallo Valencia

    (Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA))

  • Carolina Pagliacci

    (Banco Central de Venezuela)

  • Ana María Chirinos

    (Banco Central de Venezuela)

Abstract

Esta investigación establece empíricamente la relación entre el crecimiento de la renta petrolera y la expansión del mercado inmobiliario para el periodo de 2004-2011, señalando aquellos factores externos y crediticios que intervienen en el mecanismo de transmisión. Asimismo, evalúa el efecto de los movimientos en los precios inmobiliarios sobre la estabilidad del sistema financiero. Para ello, se construye un índice inmobiliario que considera los principales atributos del activo y se estiman un SVAR y un panel dinámico. Entre los principales resultados se obtiene que un incremento de la renta petrolera y una apreciación del tipo de cambio real generan las condiciones propicias para un incremento de la oferta de crédito hipotecario y del precio de los inmuebles. La estabilidad financiera de los bancos se ve afectada en forma negativa por crecimientos previos tanto de la cartera crediticia inmobiliaria como del índice de precios inmobiliarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Óscar Carvallo Valencia & Carolina Pagliacci & Ana María Chirinos, 2017. "¿Qué determina los precios del mercado inmobiliario en Venezuela? Una historia sobre renta petrolera y fragilidad financiera?," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Gerardo Licandro & Jorge Ponce (ed.), Precios de activos internos, fundamentos globales y estabilidad financiera, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, pages 139-183, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cml:incocp:4sp-5
    Note: Programa de Investigación Conjunta XVII Reunión de la Red de Investigadores de Bancos Centrales del Continente Americano
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    choque externo; mercado crediticio; mercado inmobiliario; renta petrolera; fragilidad financiera; activos nacionales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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