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Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick A. Ray
  • Casey M. Brown

Abstract

The Decision Tree Framework described in this book provides resource-limited project planners and program managers with a cost-effective and effort-efficient, scientifically defensible, repeatable, and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. At the conclusion of this process, the project planner will be empowered to confidently communicate the method by which the vulnerabilities of the project have been assessed, and how the adjustments that were made (if any were necessary) improved the project’s feasibility and profitability. The framework adopts a “bottom-up” approach to risk assessment that aims at a thorough understanding of a project’s vulnerabilities to climate change in the context of other nonclimate uncertainties (for example, economic, environmental, demographic, or political). It helps to identify projects that perform well across a wide range of potential future climate conditions, as opposed to seeking solutions that are optimal in expected conditions but fragile to conditions deviating from the expected.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick A. Ray & Casey M. Brown, 2015. "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 22544, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:22544
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    File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/22544/9781464804779.pdf?sequence=1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guido Rianna & Luca Comegna & Alfredo Reder & Gianfranco Urciuoli & Luciano Picarelli, 2023. "A simplified procedure to assess the effects of climate change on landslide hazard in a small area of the Southern Apennines in Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2633-2654, February.
    2. Pravin Karki & Laura Bonzanigo & Haruhisa Ohtsuka & Sanjay Pahuja, 2016. "Toward Climate-Resilient Hydropower in South Asia," World Bank Publications - Reports 24254, The World Bank Group.
    3. Mark Zandvoort & Nora Kooijmans & Paul Kirshen & Adri van den Brink, 2019. "Designing with Pathways: A Spatial Design Approach for Adaptive and Sustainable Landscapes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Neha Mukhi & Suneira Rana & Sara Mills-Knapp & Eskedar Gessesse, 2020. "World Bank Outlook 2050 Strategic Directions Note," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33958, December.
    5. Jaiyeop Lee & Ilho Kim, 2022. "Long-term stagnation monitoring using machine learning: comparison of artificial neural network model and convolution neural network model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2117-2130, May.
    6. Decker, Christopher, 2018. "Utility and regulatory decision-making under conditions of uncertainty: Balancing resilience and affordability," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 51-60.
    7. Seshagiri Rao Kolusu & Christian Siderius & Martin C. Todd & Ajay Bhave & Declan Conway & Rachel James & Richard Washington & Robel Geressu & Julien J. Harou & Japhet J. Kashaigili, 2021. "Sensitivity of projected climate impacts to climate model weighting: multi-sector analysis in eastern Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-20, February.
    8. Ahmed Rafique & Steven Burian & Daniyal Hassan & Rakhshinda Bano, 2020. "Analysis of Operational Changes of Tarbela Reservoir to Improve the Water Supply, Hydropower Generation, and Flood Control Objectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    9. Jayne F. Knott & Jennifer M. Jacobs & Jo E. Sias & Paul Kirshen & Eshan V. Dave, 2019. "A Framework for Introducing Climate-Change Adaptation in Pavement Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-23, August.

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