Studies of African Economies From Past to Future Vol.6

(Ch.1) The aim of this chapter is to try to explain governance failures in Sub-Saharan Africa and to identify reforms which can lead to good governance. The failures are mainly due to institutions that do not work properly, corruption, and lack of real democracy. Governance reforms can be both institutional and political. The political reforms should promote and reinforce democratic practices. Institutions should guarantee the rule of law and limit the elite’s economic and political power.(Ch.2) This chapter addresses in details the basic concept of time series and predicting them with the use of Box – Jenkins Methodology multi-variables. The study aims at using the Methodology of Box – Jenkins in predicting estimating and analyzing the economic variables specifying the rate of exchange in Sudan during the period 1975 – 2019 with entering these variables in the estimated model, the study made use of the descriptive Methodology for analysis and the statistical methodology in realizing its objectives and the (SPSS25, NCSS20, MINITAB16, E_views10). The study conclude that the time series is the best methods for prediction in general, and the methodology of Box – Jenkins of multi- variables in particular, and in stability and (stationary) of the time series is due to the existence of the random orientation and the nature of the random indicatives of macro-economics in their environment. The proper model of the study is (ARIMA 2.1.1) according to Box – Jenkins Methodology (the multi variables one). The study concluded with to the quality and suitability of the models of (ARIMA 2.1.1) the multi-variables in predicting the rate of exchange and the specified variables. The study recommended the followings. To strive to find date base that meets all the needs of ministry of finance and National economics and the research and statistic administration at the central Bank of Sudan, and the necessity to give full care to statistical, econometrics and predictive studies regarding the different economic phenomena. The economic sector at (the Ministry of finance and National economy and the central bank of Sudan should use the model of (ARIMA 2.1.1) in predicting the rate of exchange in future accompanied with specified economic indicatives in the Models.