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Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die staatlichen Alterssicherungssysteme : Modellrechnungen bis 2050


  • Martin Werding
  • Harald Blau


Gegenstand der vorliegenden Studie sind auf internationale Vergleichbarkeit angelegte Modellrechnungen zu den langfristigen Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die Alterssicherungssysteme und auf die öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland. Das wichtigste Ergebnis aller Varianten der Modellrechnungen ist, daß sich die Perspektiven für die Finanzierung der staatlichen Alterssicherungssysteme nach 2030 - dem Zeithorizont aller jüngeren Reformen - weiter verschlechtern. Um dieser Entwicklung Rechnung zu tragen, muß die Rentenreform weiter vorangetrieben werden und im Anschluß daran müssen die in ihrer Bedeutung zurücktretenden staatlichen Alterssicherungssysteme vermehrt durch private, kapitalgedeckte Formen der Altersvorsorge ergänzt werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Werding & Harald Blau, 2002. "Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die staatlichen Alterssicherungssysteme : Modellrechnungen bis 2050," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 8, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifobei:8

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2004. "Ageing and the tax implied in public pension schemes: simulations for selected OECD countries," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 159-200, June.
    2. Robert Fenge & Martin Werding, 2003. "Ageing and Fiscal Imbalances Across Generations: Concepts of Measurement," CESifo Working Paper Series 842, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item


    Bevölkerungsentwicklung; Alternde Bevölkerung; Alterssicherung; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung; Ruhegehalt; Öffentliche Finanzwirtschaft; Öffentliche Schulden; Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure


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