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Using mobility measures to explain short-run economic performance during COVID-19's first wave

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  • Barja, Gover

Abstract

People’s mobility behavior and self-correcting economic forces are shown to be key variables in explaining the observed contraction and recovery of the Bolivian economy during COVID-19’s first wave. ARMAX models are used to explain the growth rate of the monthly index of economic activity in terms of changes in the rate of mobility measures produced by Google. These measures are argued to capture the effect of the complex dynamics of COVID-19 epidemiology and COVID-19 policies on people’s decisions when balancing health risks with inevitable economic sacrifice, thus affecting aggregate economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Barja, Gover, 2021. "Using mobility measures to explain short-run economic performance during COVID-19's first wave," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 25(53), pages 4-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:333218
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/333218/1/Bolivia_Mobility_Paper.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Furceri, Davide & Ganslmeier, Michael & Yang, Naihan, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," CEPR Discussion Papers 15892, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    2. Rahmiye Figen Ceylan & Burhan Ozkan & Esra Mulazimogullari, 2020. "Historical evidence for economic effects of COVID-19," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(6), pages 817-823, August.
    3. Mr. Bas B. Bakker & Carlos Goncalves, 2021. "COVID-19 in Latin America: A High Toll on Lives and Livelihoods," IMF Working Papers 2021/168, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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