IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wsi/serxxx/v70y2025i04ns021759082048001x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Foreign Exchange Reserves Using Bayesian Model Averaging-Naã Ve Bayes

Author

Listed:
  • BELÉN SALAS

    (PhD Program in Economics and Business and Department of Finance and Accounting, University of Málaga, Málaga, Spain)

  • DAVID ALAMINOS

    (��PhD Program in Mechanical Engineering and Energy Efficiency and Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Málaga, Málaga, Spain)

  • MANUEL A. FERNÃ NDEZ-GÃ MEZ

    (��Department of Finance and Accounting, University of Málaga, Málaga, Spain)

  • à NGELA CALLEJÓN

    (��Department of Finance and Accounting, University of Málaga, Málaga, Spain)

Abstract

Foreign exchange reserves are used by governments to balance international payments and make stable the exchange rate. Numerous works have developed models to predict foreign exchange reserves; however, the existing models have limitations and the literature demands more research on the subject given that the accuracy of the models is still poor, and they have only been used for emerging countries. This paper presents a new prediction model of foreign exchange reserves for both emerging countries and developed countries, applying a method of Bayesian model averaging-Naïve Bayes, which shows better precision results than the individual classifier. Our model has a great potential impact on the adequacy of macroeconomic policy against the risks derived from balance of payment crises providing tools that help to achieve financial stability on a global level.

Suggested Citation

  • Belã‰N Salas & David Alaminos & Manuel A. Fernã Ndez-Gã Mez & à Ngela Callejã“N, 2025. "Forecasting Foreign Exchange Reserves Using Bayesian Model Averaging-Naã Ve Bayes," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 70(04), pages 929-951, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:70:y:2025:i:04:n:s021759082048001x
    DOI: 10.1142/S021759082048001X
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S021759082048001X
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1142/S021759082048001X?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign exchange reserves; balance of payment; Bayesian model averaging; Naïve Bayes; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:70:y:2025:i:04:n:s021759082048001x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tai Tone Lim (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.worldscinet.com/ser/ser.shtml .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.