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Conditional Jump Dynamics In Stock Returns: Evidence From Mist Stock Exchanges

Author

Listed:
  • HAKAN DANIS

    (Union Bank (Subsidiary of Bank of Tokyo — Mitsubishi UFJ), San Francisco, CA 94104, USA)

  • ENDER DEMIR

    (Istanbul Medeniyet University, Istanbul, Turkey)

  • MEHMET HUSEYIN BILGIN

    (Istanbul Medeniyet University, Istanbul, Turkey)

Abstract

This paper applies a conditional jump model that was proposed by Chan and Maheu (2002) to examine the stock market dynamics of Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey (MIST). We find that the conditional jump intensity parameter estimates are statistically significant and change dramatically between two sample periods. We show that a high probability of jumps today predicts a high probability of jumps in the next period. The impact of a previous shock to the next period's jump intensity is found to be higher in Turkey compared to other MIST countries. Contrary to the previous literature, we discover that after a stock market crash, it is more likely to see a negative jump (drop) again in the stock exchanges of Mexico and Indonesia. Only in Turkey, it is more likely to see a positive jump after market crashes.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Danis & Ender Demir & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin, 2015. "Conditional Jump Dynamics In Stock Returns: Evidence From Mist Stock Exchanges," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 60(01), pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:60:y:2015:i:01:n:s0217590815500058
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590815500058
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Heeho Kim & Sanguk Kwon & Youn Seol, 2022. "Currency Bias of Sovereign Wealth Fund Investments," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 38, pages 415-443.
    2. Hongxia Zhang & Heeho Kim, 2019. "Foreign Bias Of Sovereign Wealth Fund And Spatial Spillover Effects," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(02), pages 377-397, March.
    3. Thorsten Lehnert, 2019. "Big moves of mutual funds," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock return; conditional jump; ARJI-GARCH; MIST countries; C32; G15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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