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Promoting More Sustainable Rural Land Use And Development: A Case Study In Eastern Europe Using Bayesian Network Models

Author

Listed:
  • PHILIP J. BACON

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Banchory, Glassel, Banchory, Aberdeenshire AB31 4BW, Scotland, UK)

  • JEREMY D. CAIN

    (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK)

  • MICHAL KOZAKIEWICZ

    (Department of Ecology, Warsaw University, Banacha 2, 02-097 Warsawa, Poland)

  • MARCIN BRZEZINSKI

    (Department of Ecology, Warsaw University, Banacha 2, 02-097 Warsawa, Poland)

  • ANNA LIRO

    (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Wspolna 30, 00-922, Warsawa, Poland)

Abstract

A Bayesian Network approach to developing effective policies for more sustainable rural land use and development is presented which:• incorporates several different stakeholder viewpoints• integrates and balances the results from different viewpoints, and thus facilitates compromise land use solutions• elucidates the main factors affecting stakeholders' decisions, on which policy levers will operate more effectively• allows differences between "expected change" and "observed change" to be understood as arising from uncertainty and variation about "the average situation"• demonstrates the crucial roles of beliefs and uncertainties in determining the preferred options of different groups• emphasises the need to know the beliefs and uncertainties of local land managers• incorporates public participation and social learning while such necessary data are gathered.The approach's merits for fostering pro-active policy design and subsidiarity, and for focusing the research needed to underpin rural policy are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Philip J. Bacon & Jeremy D. Cain & Michal Kozakiewicz & Marcin Brzezinski & Anna Liro, 2002. "Promoting More Sustainable Rural Land Use And Development: A Case Study In Eastern Europe Using Bayesian Network Models," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 199-240.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsi:jeapmx:v:04:y:2002:i:02:n:s1464333202000966
    DOI: 10.1142/S1464333202000966
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    Cited by:

    1. Boulanger, Paul-Marie & Brechet, Thierry, 2005. "Models for policy-making in sustainable development: The state of the art and perspectives for research," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 337-350, November.

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