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Modeling the coupling between a COVID-19-like epidemic and the economy

Author

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  • Matthieu Aucouturier

    (PMMH, ESPCI, CNRS UMR 7636, 7 Quai St. Bernard, 75005 Paris, France)

  • Hans J. Herrmann

    (PMMH, ESPCI, CNRS UMR 7636, 7 Quai St. Bernard, 75005 Paris, France†Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Campus do Pici, 60455-760 Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil)

Abstract

We consider a compartmental model adapted to the case of COVID-19 that takes into account the detection of ill individuals and the cost of medical treatment and investigate the effect of a budget constraint. Our analysis shows how the collapse of the budget can drastically change the outcome of an epidemics. We see how with a good testing policy the epidemic might be controllable. By introducing a lockdown period, we show that the final number of deaths can be reduced substantially and observe that a budget collapse introduces rather extreme effects. We find that there exists a well-defined optimal starting point for a lockdown. We also looked at the consequences of a loss of immunity and found that then a budget collapse can occur for smaller costs of medical treatment.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthieu Aucouturier & Hans J. Herrmann, 2021. "Modeling the coupling between a COVID-19-like epidemic and the economy," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 32(11), pages 1-13, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijmpcx:v:32:y:2021:i:11:n:s0129183121501503
    DOI: 10.1142/S0129183121501503
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahumada, M. & Ledesma-Araujo, A. & Gordillo, L. & Marín, J.F., 2023. "Mutation and SARS-CoV-2 strain competition under vaccination in a modified SIR model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. Jayles, Bertrand & Cheong, Siew Ann & Herrmann, Hans J., 2022. "Modeling the resilience of social networks to lockdowns regarding the dynamics of meetings," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 602(C).

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