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Flattening The Curve In Risk Management Of Covid-19: Do Lockdowns Work?

Author

Listed:
  • DAVID E. ALLEN

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney, Australia2Department of Finance, Asia University, Taiwan3School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University, Australia)

  • MICHAEL MCALEER

    (Department of Finance, College of Management, Asia University, Taiwan5Department of Bioinformatics and Medical Engineering, College of Information and Electrical Engineering, Asia University, Taiwan6Discipline of Business Analytics, University of Sydney Business School, Australia7Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands8Department of Economic Analysis and ICAE, Complutense University of Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

This paper presents a novel analysis of the global spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes the COVID-19 disease using the R package “nCov2019”, with an emphasis on the global spread and forecasts of the disease, and the rate of transmission in individual countries at two different points in time, namely, March and September 2020. This throws in sharp relief the relative effectiveness of the attempts to risk manage the spread of the virus by “flattening the curve” (aka planking the curve) of the speed of transmission, and the efficacy of lockdowns in terms of the spread of the disease and death rates. Simple cross-sectional regressions are able to predict quite well both the total number of cases and deaths, which cast doubt on the above measures. The algorithmic techniques, results and analysis presented in the paper should prove useful to the medical and health professions, science advisers and risk management and decision making of healthcare by state, regional and national governments in all countries.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Allen & Michael Mcaleer, 2020. "Flattening The Curve In Risk Management Of Covid-19: Do Lockdowns Work?," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(04), pages 1-26, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:afexxx:v:15:y:2020:i:04:n:s2010495220500116
    DOI: 10.1142/S2010495220500116
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