Sustainable development and global emission targets: A dynamical systems approach to aid evidence‐based policy making

There is broad scientific consensus that increasing global emissions at current rates will lead to irreversible climate change. The global commitment to sustainable development goals and the 2015 Paris Agreement attempt to address this concern with policy changes. But top‐down approaches including voluntary emission cuts do not appear politically feasible in all countries. In this paper, it is shown that moderate voluntary emission cuts (policy) supplemented by technological developments and changes in consumption tastes and preferences induced by educating individuals (stakeholder engagement) could help achieve emission targets. A novel dynamical systems modelling approach based on economic theory is used to show the quantitative tradeoffs between these different approaches. Using this model, it is shown how economic development may be balanced by global reductions in emissions so that, initially, developing economies can continue along their current growth trajectories and eliminate poverty, and eventually bear more of the emissions reduction burden.