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Corridor Volatility Risk and Expected Returns

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  • George Dotsis
  • Nikolaos Vlastakis

Abstract

This paper examines the pricing of volatility risk using SPX corridor implied volatility. We decompose model‐free implied volatility into various components using different segments of the cross‐section of out‐of‐the money put and call option prices. We find that only model‐free volatility computed from the cross‐section of out‐of‐the‐money call option prices carries a significant negative risk premium in the cross‐section of stock returns and subsumes all relevant information for forecasting future volatility. Our empirical results provide strong evidence that SPX out‐of‐the money put option prices do not contain useful information for pricing aggregate volatility risk in the cross‐section of stock returns. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 36:488–505, 2016

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  • George Dotsis & Nikolaos Vlastakis, 2016. "Corridor Volatility Risk and Expected Returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 488-505, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:36:y:2016:i:5:p:488-505
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    Cited by:

    1. Dudley Gilder & Leonidas Tsiaras, 2020. "Volatility forecasts embedded in the prices of crude‐oil options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1127-1159, July.
    2. Xingzhi Yao & Marwan Izzeldin, 2018. "Forecasting using alternative measures of model‐free option‐implied volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 199-218, February.
    3. Chen, Yu-Lun & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2017. "Determinants of price discovery in the VIX futures market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-73.
    4. Jiangze Du & Shaojie Lai & Kin Keung Lai & Shifei Zhou, 2021. "A novel term structure stochastic model with adaptive correlation for trend analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5485-5498, October.
    5. Shan Lu, 2019. "Testing the Predictive Ability of Corridor Implied Volatility Under GARCH Models," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(2), pages 129-168, June.

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