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Market efficiency among futures with different maturities: Evidence from the crude oil futures market


  • Kaoru Kawamoto
  • Shigeyuki Hamori


Although many studies have investigated market efficiency of spot and futures prices, that among futures with different maturities has not been studied extensively. In this study, market efficiency and unbiasedness among such futures are defined and the concept of “consistently efficient (or consistently efficient and unbiased) market within n‐month maturity” is introduced. According to this definition, market efficiency and unbiasedness among WTI futures with different maturities are tested using cointegration analysis, and short‐term market efficiency, using an error correction model and GARCH‐M‐ECM. The results show that WTI futures are consistently efficient within 8‐month maturity and consistently efficient and unbiased within 2‐month maturity. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:487–501, 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Kaoru Kawamoto & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2011. "Market efficiency among futures with different maturities: Evidence from the crude oil futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), pages 487-501, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:31:y:2011:i:5:p:487-501

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    Cited by:

    1. Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud & Michel Robe, 2017. "Information Flows across the Futures Term Structure: Evidence from Crude Oil Prices," Post-Print hal-01781761, HAL.
    2. Chang, Chun-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2015. "Do oil spot and futures prices move together?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 379-390.
    3. Delphine Lautier & Franck Raynaud & Michel Robe, 2017. "Shocks propagation across the futures term structure : evidence from crude oil prices," Post-Print hal-01781765, HAL.
    4. Hammami Algia & Bouri Abdelfatteh, 2016. "The Volatility of Oil Prices: What Factors?," Bulletin of Energy Economics (BEE), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 4(1), pages 98-110, March.
    5. Javier Garcia-Verdugo & Meliyara Sirex Consuegra, 2013. "Estimating functional efficiency in energy futures markets," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 105-115.
    6. repec:eco:journ2:2017-06-8 is not listed on IDEAS

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