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Combining expert‐adjusted forecasts

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  • Dick van Dijk
  • Philip Hans Franses

Abstract

It is well known that a combination of model‐based forecasts can improve upon each of the individual constituent forecasts. Most forecasts available in practice are, however, not purely based on econometric models but entail adjustments, where experts with domain‐specific knowledge modify the original model forecasts. There is much evidence that expert‐adjusted forecasts do not necessarily improve the pure model‐based forecasts. In this paper we show, however, that combined expert‐adjusted model forecasts can improve on combined model forecasts, in the case when the individual expert‐adjusted forecasts are not better than their associated model‐based forecasts. We discuss various implications of this finding.

Suggested Citation

  • Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 2019. "Combining expert‐adjusted forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 415-421, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:38:y:2019:i:5:p:415-421
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2570
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    Cited by:

    1. Philip Hans Franses, 2021. "Modeling Judgment in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 401-417, December.
    2. Liu, Anyu & Vici, Laura & Ramos, Vicente & Giannoni, Sauveur & Blake, Adam, 2021. "Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

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