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The macroeconomic impact of reforming a PAYG system: The Portuguese case

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  • Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia
  • Emídio Graça Lopes

Abstract

The article analyses the impact of various types of reform options on social security pension system financial sustainability and on a range of macroeconomic variables. The HERPOR model is used to consider the likely effects of parametric reforms of the existing pay‐as‐you‐go system, as well as those of a systemic reform. The article concludes that the former are sufficient to ensure financial sustainability, although they should be accompanied by employment implementation measures. The article concludes that a fully pre‐funded system does not seem to be a viable option for policy‐makers in the redesigning of social security pension systems, due to the high transition costs involved.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia & Emídio Graça Lopes, 2009. "The macroeconomic impact of reforming a PAYG system: The Portuguese case," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:intssr:v:62:y:2009:i:1:p:1-23
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-246X.2008.01320.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia & André Fernando Rodrigues Rocha da Silva, 2023. "Pension expenditure determinants: the case of Portugal," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 177-203.
    2. Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia & André Fernando Rodrigues Rocha da Silva, 2019. "Assessing Pension Expenditure Determinants – the Case of Portugal," Working Papers REM 2019/68, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    3. Garcia, Maria Teresa Medeiros & Fontainha, Elsa & Passos, José, 2017. "Hiring older workers: The case of Portugal," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 71-77.
    4. Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia, 2017. "Overview of the Portuguese Three Pillar Pension System," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 23(2), pages 175-189, May.

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